David Hoskins, 19. maj 2005

King Gyanendra of Nepal has announced the lifting of a state of emergency he imposed on the country at the beginning of February, but many repressive measures remain in force in the impoverished Himalayan kingdom.

Following the emergency declaration, Nepal’s government was dismissed and all civil liberties were suspended as the Royal Army occupied cities and towns and enforced strict curfews.

At the time he enacted his royal coup, Gyanendra indicated he would give himself 100 days to contain the revolutionary process led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and destroy the fighting capacity of the New People’s Army.

Gyanendra’s one-man rule made it hard for the governments of the U.S., India and Britain to continue their open support for his regime. So he declared that the 100 days had been successful and that the revolutionary forces were significantly diminished. He also wants to give the appearance that civil liberties and freedom for opposition parties have been restored, so the three governments can justify the resumption of military aid the monarch needs to fight the popular insurgency.

It appears that Gyanendra was wrong on both counts. Armed action continues against government dissenters. Military units and armed police continue to be mobilized against protesters and opposition party leaders. The offices of the youth wing of the legally recognized United Marxist-Leninist Party continue to be forcibly occupied and the Royal Army recently fired on crowds of student protesters. Additionally, high-level officials from the parliamentary parties remain under indefinite detention and there is continued police harassment of the king’s political opponents. (BBC News, April 30)

Nevertheless, the U.S. and India are expected to resume military aid to the king’s beleaguered regime. There is little doubt that this aid is much needed to prop up the royal government after its expenditure of a great amount of military power failed to destroy the revolution.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca paid King Gyanendra and other government officials a visit in early May. Rocca’s visit was viewed by regional analysts as a sign that Washington is interested in expediting the resumption of arms shipments in order to fight the insurgency. (Nepal News, May 09)

Rocca spoke openly about the Maoist revolution, intimating that a people’s republic in Nepal would be viewed by the Bush administration as a threat to U.S. hegemony in the region. She also spoke highly of Gyanendra’s decision to rescind the emergency declaration and encouraged the king and the parliamentary parties to unite to defeat the revolutionary movement.

The monarchy’s contention that it has contained and diminished the armed strength of the revolutionary forces also appears to be false. According to the revolutionary forces, dozens of police and army troops were killed in fierce fighting both during and after the state of emergency. On May 10 several hundred Maoist revolutionaries launched simultaneous armed attacks on three joint security bases at Bandipur, Chorhawa and Mirchaiya. All three bases are along the east-west highway that links the rest of the country to the capital of Katmandu. (Nepal News, May 10)

This is backed up by BBC accounts of the situation in the country.

Even during the state of emergency, the Maoists demonstrated their strength in defiance of the virtual military lockdown by calling general strikes in certain regions and closing down all private schools outside of Katmandu. In April the All Nepal National Free Student’s Union (Revolu tionary) successfully closed thousands of private schools for several weeks. It was protesting the lack of quality public education and the high cost of private education that prevented poor workers and peasants from attending school. The ANNFSU-R is the student wing of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).

The CPN(M) and its affiliated organizations appear to be operating at full capacity, despite months of state terrorism. This places King Gyanendra in the awkward situation of either admitting that his military has greatly inflated the number of casualties it claims to have inflicted on the revolutionary forces, or admitting that the size of the revolutionary forces and their support among the masses is stronger than even many of the Maoists’ sympathizers have suspected.